U.S. House of Representatives | Senate
2026 House Results
Live returns for all 435 districts. Hover a district for the count and the model’s call. Waiting for results
About these readouts and views
Called is the share of races AP has called. The model record counts called races whose winner matched the frozen projection; the average miss and the lean compare actual margins with projected margins in those races. Switch the view to Misses to see every called race the model got wrong, to Shift for an arrow in every county in the country showing how far its vote has moved from its 2024 presidential margin (left for a Democratic shift, right for a Republican one), to Outlook to fill in the uncalled races from the way their counts are trending and see a likely final tally, to Baseline to color each race by how far its result sits from the place’s usual lean, or to Redrawn to pick out the districts whose lines were redrawn for 2026 with everything else faded.
Where the model missed
Every called race whose winner was not the model’s projected winner, largest miss first. The first line is the result and who won, the second the projection and its odds, and the bar is the size of the miss in points. Hover a tile for the full count.
Forecast vs. result
Each dot is a called race: the model’s final projected margin across, the actual margin up. Dots on the dashed diagonal are perfect calls; the solid line is the fit. Dots below the diagonal on the Democratic side mean Democrats won by less than projected; grey rings are the races the model called wrong.
Notes & method
Scoring the model
A race counts as called when AP calls it. The model’s projected winner is the party ahead in its final projected margin, frozen before polls opened; a miss is a called race where the other party won. Margins are Democrat minus Republican as a share of all votes counted, so they keep moving until the count is complete, and the average miss and the lean are computed over called races only. In Nebraska the independent, Dan Osborn, stands in for the Democratic side, as the model framed that race. California’s same-party races and the uncontested seats have no two-party margin and are scored on the winner alone. In the tooltip, vs. baseline is the margin against the place’s usual lean, its average presidential margin from 2008 to 2024, as on the forecast page, and Shift from 2024 is the margin against the 2024 presidential margin alone. The Shift view draws that comparison for every county in the country, from each county’s centroid, using the AP count by county and the county’s 2024 presidential margin from the same feed: arrows point left for a shift toward Democrats and right for a shift toward Republicans, each county takes the first race that gives it a two-party margin (on the House tab the House vote, then the Senate race, then the governor’s race; on the Senate tab the Senate race first), and a state or district reported without county counts gets one arrow for the whole race. Outlook gives each uncalled race to whoever leads its count so far, in the tallies and on the map, and the tooltip adds the feed’s live estimate of where the count ends up (the win odds and median final margin given the votes counted); before any votes are in it uses that estimate, and failing that the frozen model. On the Senate map the states with no race this year are shaded by their delegation as it stands: a deep blue for two Democratic senators, a deep red for two Republicans and a light blue for one of each. Baseline colors each race by its margin minus a baseline, the 2008 to 2024 presidential average, so blue is a result running more Democratic than usual and red more Republican, whatever the winner; on the House map the reference is the district’s state by default, with a switch in the legend to use each district’s own lines instead, and the tooltip shows both. In the Redrawn view the misses among the redrawn districts carry a dark outline. Redrawn shows the districts in the ten states that adopted new congressional maps for 2026 (Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas and Utah, whether by mid-decade redistricting or court order) in full color, with every other district faded. Polls projected is the generic-ballot polling average at face value applied through the seat’s elasticity, before the model’s mean reversion and other adjustments; the two off-by rows are the result (or the count so far) minus each projection, so D means the race ran more Democratic than projected.