U.S. House of Representatives | Senate
2026 House Forecast
All 435 districts, simulated. Hover a district for its margin and odds. Model last run
Simulated outcomes
Twenty thousand simulated elections. Each run draws one national environment (the expected margin below, ±6 points of uncertainty), scaled by each seat’s elasticity, plus a shared regional error for each Census region, and then decides every seat individually: all 435 districts on their real margins and the 35 Senate races up in 2026, so the House and Senate move together. Each little box is a share of the simulations; the line marks the seats needed for control.
The battlegrounds
Each tile is one of the closest seats in the model: the party leading today, the current margin, and the share of simulations in which that leader keeps the seat. The bar underneath shows how lopsided the odds are, red for Republican and blue for Democratic. These are the races that decide the chamber, so even a small shift in the national environment moves several of them at once.
Ballot vs. result
The generic ballot runs a little hot. Across the last ten elections, the party ahead on the final ballot average usually won the House popular vote by a bit less than the polls said. Each dot is one cycle; the line is the fit; the dashed diagonal is where the ballot would equal the result exactly. Turn on mean reversion to project 2026 the same way and push it through the whole model.
Notes & method
The battlegrounds
With today's polarization and redistricting, the House comes down to a few dozen seats. These are the closest districts in the model, the ones that decide control. In the competitive seats, each district's margin also carries a fundraising fundamental from the Q3 FEC filings: 0.75 points per doubling of the candidates' receipts ratio, capped at 1.5, and halved when the money edge belongs to the incumbent. Senate odds come from models that already weigh fundraising, so the Senate shows the money but does not adjust for it. The projected winner named in each tooltip is the leading party's general-election candidate as listed by Ballotpedia; where a party has nobody on the ballot, the tooltip names who is actually running. The baseline rows compare the 2026 projection with the seat's average presidential margin from 2008 to 2024; the shift is in Democratic points, and the candidate named is the one running ahead of that average (within 1.5 points counts as in line). The national swing is not uniform: each seat moves by its elasticity, estimated from how its presidential margin tracked the national margin from 2008 to 2024 (mean 1; shrunk toward 1 and capped at 0.7 to 1.4).