U.S. House of Representatives | Senate
2026 House Forecast
All 435 districts, simulated. Hover a district for its margin and odds. Model last run
Democrats
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Republicans
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R +30EvenD +30
The battlegrounds
With today's polarization and redistricting, the House comes down to a few dozen seats. These are the closest districts in the model, the ones that decide control.
Simulated outcomes
Twenty thousand simulated elections. Each run draws one national environment (the expected margin below, ±6 points of uncertainty) and then decides every seat individually: all 435 districts on their real margins and the 35 Senate races up in 2026, so the House and Senate move together. Each little box is a share of the simulations; the line marks the seats needed for control.