Modified Sahm Rule
Interactive Tool Version 2.2 Beta | Last updated: May 3, 2025
Show with Recessions, Data from 1948 to Present
Results
Advance of Committee
-
Days
Advance of Recession
-
Days
Accuracy
-
Modifications
Base
(Minuend)
(Minuend)
Relative
(Subtrahend)
(Subtrahend)
Recession
Smoothing Level
Base
(Minuend)
(Minuend)
Relative
(Subtrahend)
(Subtrahend)
Time Period
(Minimum)
(Minimum)
Adjustments
Seasonal
Threshold
(Alpha)
(Alpha)
Natural Rate
Preceding
Source: Claudia Sahm, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Note: Indicator based on real-time unemployment rate data, adjusted annually for seasonal factors.
The Sahm Recession Indicator signals a recession when the unemployment rate's three-month moving average
rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to previous month's minimum average.
Visualized by: Giorgi Gviniashvili and Mark G.
Shepard.
Author: Mark G. Shepard.