Modified Sahm Rule
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Modified Sahm Rule
The modified Sahm Recession Indicator.
Show with Reference Lines and Recessions.
Data from 1965 to Present.
Interactive Tool Version 1.1 Beta.
Last updated: 13 February 2025.
Source: Claudia Sahm, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Note: Indicator based on real-time unemployment rate data, adjusted annually for seasonal factors.
The Sahm Recession Indicator signals a recession when the unemployment rate's three-month moving average
rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to previous month's minimum average.
Visualized by: Giorgi Gviniashvili and Mark G. Shepard.
Author: Mark G. Shepard.